In my opinion, the GBP/USD bullish move is entirely unjustified, and I am looking to sell into rallies after the BOE decision.
It seems that markets have already priced in the BOE decision to rate hikes. It is the interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight, and the release is scheduled for 11 AM GMT. In my opinion, there are multiple reasons why they shouldn’t hike and why we could sell it on a post-BOE algo-trading rally. Both the inflation, wages and technical picture are not looking bullish enough. The GBP is aligned for a sell. Adding to that is a bearish pressure before the BOE decision that further justifies my thought that markets have priced the hike in. Algos will probably spike the GBP in case of the rate hike and sellers will emerge later. However, what if we don’t see a rate hike. Either way – my opinion is to sell the GBP/USD exchange rate.
We can see the confluence at 2 POC zones 1.3150-1.3185 and 1.3235-50. Both zones could be a sell with stops slightly above 1.3290. Targets should be 1.3010 and 1.2965. This is the 4h timeframe so adjust the risk. I don’t recommend trading the BOE event with more than 2 % risk. However if there will be no hike at all, the GBP is an instant algo-sell, and the target could be 1.2900.
Enjoy both the Super Thursday and the beautiful summer markets trading.
Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX