The Oil uptrend continues to march higher after breaking above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The next Fib resistance zone is the 61.8%, which is the last area where price could potentially show a bearish bounce and confirm the wave 4 (pink) outlook. is in a bullish channel but a strong 50% Fibonacci level could stop the trend from moving higher. The resistance level is a key decision zone for a bearish bounce or bullish breakout.
A bearish bounce could confirm the current wave pattern outlook where price is building a wave 4-5 (purple) of wave C (red), but a bullish breakout would make the bearish market strucure less likely. In that case, a different wave pattern is probably valid and dominant.
Oil is building a bullish channel in the larger uptrend channel after the breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange). The wave pattern could be a final wave 5 of 5, which could aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci target. A strong bearish bounce could confirm a reversal but it is important that price is able to break below the support trend lines (blue) before a larger reversal can be confirmed.
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